Thursday, October 04, 2007

Latest polls: a bit of perspective is required

So the polls indicate a rise in Tory support (up between 4% - 6%). Is anyone really that surprised? Before we get too carried away let's just look back a few years.

Cast your minds back to October 2003 - those heady days when one Iain Duncan Smith was leader of the Tory party. A snap poll taken by YouGov straight after that conference showed Conservative support rising 5%(from 33% to 38%) and a few days later, ICM and MORI showed Conservative support rising by 3% and 4% respectively.

Last year, a Tory lead of 1% with ICM, and level-pegging with YouGov, prior to the Tory conference, had been converted into Tory leads of 10% and 7% respectively, after the conference.

The Tories are NOT going to win a general election unless they are consistently ahead in the polls by between 8% - 10%. Cameron knows this and so does Brown - it is still very much game on.

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